String of Pearls (India’s dilemma) -Bhupal Chahal
Bhupal Chahal
This narration is a copy paste of events at home and abroad with an effort to analyze and deduce the run of events likely to follow. With ears and eyes open, added inputs of the print and visual media at home and overseas, a hazy picture comes to light. The silence of think tanks of the powers that are, indicate fears of the unknown. The bashing of past events helps none and adds to the fears. A straight talk is better avoided in the larger interests of diplomacy.
The reference is not as much of the Covid-19 but to the happenings on our Northern and Western borders. Had there been No Covid-19, our countrymen would have lost sleep without hearing the bangs and loss of precious lives of brethren in uniform. Today we have warrior in White and Khaki uniform too. The admiration of the new uniform is well worth and appreciated. The society have rightly clapped to pay back and derived the motivation effect too.
While the Covid-19 is moving briskly towards the anticipated stage- 4 our Himalayan border is peeping out of the snow and the Dragon is playing his favored game of seek, hide and cheat. Delhi have flexed muscle without due care, more as an art of oratory than the consequences. My generation have seen similar posturing in 1962 with dire consequences of shame and serious setback to the morale of our nation’s armed forces in general and ground troops in particular.
Having said so much in the backdrop, there is need to see the turn of events wherein our Nation is going to be tested for maturity and diplomacy of Non-Alignment. Too much is at stake to remain a viable democracy with diversity, though easier said than done. The current outfit at Delhi has moved little too fast to make history the pages of which are unclear. A visiting world leader of consequence had cautioned to refrain from breaking the diversity as he had said, “there rests our strength”. Internal political aims have to be set keeping in sight our neighborhood. Ram Rajya and belligerence don’t go hand in hand. There also is the economic front requiring industrial revolution to keep pace in the worldwide economic race. So, we notice too much at stake that restrains us from galloping. The wisdom would dictate to think and prioritize, all can’t be achieved at one go.
Let us list our targets, nationwide political control by democratic process, with coercion, resolve Kashmir quagmire with forced Lock In and changed Article 370 of the constitution. Does it not look like abuse of 2/3 majority in country’s parliament. So much in hand, how can we ignore our adversaries and believe that they will sit quiet. Big guys are friends in good weather only and the storms have to weathered by own steam. Exactly the same is in the offing. Designs of the dragon were clear when he started adding pearls to his string. The corridor of the string nearer our home is open and dragon can wear it with additional pearls of his convenience. Having secured trade routes in Indian Ocean and the South China Sea the dragon has taken the steam off of the big players as of now by engaging them with Covid-19. The big players are afresh with their experience of Vietnam and confrontation with the Islamic world. At home the big player is answerable to its franchisees who detest fighting other’s war in distant lands. Also, we should have been wise to keep big conflagration away from South Asia. Europe has seen enough in the great Wars-1 and 2 and they would support big brother as long they don’t suffer destruction and their armament production remains in demand.
A clear picture of confusion is taking shape as the clock ticks forward. The posturing is not fake and new warfare is being introduced. Moving back to abuse, stone warfare and hand to hand fight is coming to the fore. While the world was attempting prevention of nuclear war, biological weapon has been sureptousily released. The wars have been won with new addition of weapons and tactical surprises. It bothers a layman when powers that are flex muscles and, cut down the defense budget. This kind of indications causes confusion in the rank and file. Stream lining the tail to teeth ratio is understandable but the raising of Mountains Strike Corps is not budgeted. A, Chief of Defense Staff ( CDS) has been appointed after much deliberations but command theatre groups have yet to see the light. Who shows and who sees the light is yet to be seen.
Enemy on our western front is consistent with his low cost warfare and becoming a conspicuous pearl in the string of the Dragon. It is because he has understood that on his own he will get a dressing down from us. He will therefore continue to keep us engaged and tie down our Order of Battle (ORBAT) on the Western Front. Small pin pricks here and there will keep Theatre alive. Lock down of the Kashmir Valley too suits the adversary for International opinion. Our firmness there is warranted and appreciated at home to political advantage of good governance. The big question now is how to balance the engagement in the East and the West. Added to is the Economic slowdown caused by Covid-19.
The string of pearls therefore is to be prevented from becoming a noose for us. Diplomacy and foreign affairs appears the key to loosen the string. While Trump has been engaged at home, a lean towards Putin may be on the cards. Fluidity in Afghanistan scene is of interest to him. At home diversity needs to be given space. A master is also required to rein in media both electronic and print. Move on with caution and strategic diplomatic ties are better suggested than move on regardless.
NOTE:- Bhupal Chahal is a Military professional. The views expressed are personal.
June, 20,2020
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